The GM Tipster is looking for three consecutive wins on the PGA Tour after backing Stewart Cink and then Smith/Leishman over the past fortnight
Valspar Championship Golf Betting Tips 2021
There’s plenty of British interest in the Valspar Championship, the final tournament in Florida and on a terrific course, the Copperhead at Palm Harbor, “the best we play on tour”, says 2008 Ryder Cup captain turned TV golf analyst Paul Azinger.
Paul Casey is bidding for a three-peat, having won at the Innisbrook Resort in 2018 and 2019. As the 2020 edition was wiped out by Covid, that leaves the Englishman as defending champion and seeking a place in golfing history.
Casey would join an elite group of nine to have won the same tournament three times in a row.
The feat was a piece of cake for Tiger Woods who four-peated twice, at Bay Hill and Torrey Pines, and three-peated on four other occasions.
Steve Stricker was the most recent hat-trickster ten years ago in the John Deere Classics of 2009-10-11.
As the Valspar victories amount to two-thirds of Casey’s entire PGA Tour haul since he swapped Britain for a new life in Arizona 16 years ago, the heart hopes he’ll do it but the head finds it hard to agree despite the 43-year-old playing the best golf of his career.
Up against him are the top two on the world rankings, Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas, neither of them in all-conquering mode recently but they may not have to be at their very best in a line-up containing only three more top-15 golfers in Patrick Reed, Tyrrell Hatton and Viktor Hovland.
DJ held a winning chance on his first Copperhead visit for eight years but blew it with a closing 74 for sixth place while Thomas, making his first start since finishing 21st at Augusta, missed the cut on the last of his three Valspar appearances.
Logic says DJ and JT may well finish first and second but they look beatable and I’m siding with the fast-improving Corey Conners to post his first victory since the 2019 Texas Open, coincidentally also in April.
The Canadian was 16th on his only visit three years ago and has come on a bundle since then.
Recent form of 3-7-14-8-4 on his last five strokeplay starts features top-tens at the Players and Masters.
Justin Rose didn’t get much help from the struggling Henrik Stenson in New Orleans so did well to get 11th.
Rosey’s own game has started to return after a disappointing 2020, with seventh place at the Masters following a runner-up spot in Saudi Arabia.
At his best on tough courses, he is not a Valspar regular but has decent form at Copperhead (two fifth places and an eighth) where the winning score is generally ten or less under par and is at a juicy price.
Jason Kokrak, runner-up to Casey two years ago with two other top-tens on his previous four visits and his 9-8-9 burst in hot company at The Concession, Bay Hill and Sawgrass, all in the Sunshine State, puts this big fella in the mix.
Patrick Reed’s pair of seconds in 2018 and pipped by the redoubtable Jordan Spieth in a 2015 play-off put forward a serious case for ‘Captain America’, last seen when eighth at the Masters.
Best outsider could be Richy Werenski whose third place in New Orleans with Peter Uihlein as his partner exceeded expectations.
He is far from consistent but his fourth at Bay Hill was also impressive and the 175-1 is a fair old price.
Tree-lined Copperhead, with its famed Snake Pit - two bruising long par fours sandwiching the difficult short 16th - is not a typical Florida course and requires a strong iron exponent with good positional play off the tee where the driver is not always the right go-to weapon.
It will be hot and sticky (up to 29C) with no wind to worry about.
Check out how the GM Tipster is getting on this year on our Golf Betting Tips homepage.
Valspar Championship Golf Betting Tips 2021 - advised bets
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