A huge week at Wentworth! Who will win?
BMW PGA Championship Golf Betting Tips 2021
BMW PGA Championship Golf Betting Tips 2021
Sometimes the bleedin’ obvious is the way to go rather than trying to sniff out a big-odds outsider with an each-way shout and that’s what happened in the FedEx Cup decider at East Lake.
The 7/2 joint-favourites Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm had the $15m first prize between them for the last three rounds with nobody else getting a look-in.
Cantlay’s four-shot advantage on “handicap” in the bizarre format adopted for the 30-runner end-of-term showdown turned out to be just enough to keep the world No. 1 at bay and round off a life-changing fortnight.
It began with the ice-cool Californian’s acquisition of the BMW title in Maryland the previous weekend, itself worth $9.5m, in a similar head-to-head, that time with Bryson DeChambeau, and with it came pole position off +10 for the big Georgia showdown.
Rahm’s failure to make more than two birdies out of the last 28 holes, despite playing immaculate golf, cost him ten million bucks, the difference between first and second money.
As it turned out, the more profitable way of backing the burly Spaniard was at 7/1 on the “without handicap” 72-hole strokeplay market where he was 7/1 favourite.
His 14-under-par total left him sharing top-dog honours with 70/1 outsider Kevin Na.
Now the action turns to Wentworth and the BMW PGA Championship, the last-chance saloon for Ryder Cup contenders chasing a wildcard pick from captain Padraig Harrington.
But the day before the Wentworth showpiece, which is sadly missing Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Sergio Garcia or Paul Casey, American captain Steve Stricker names his wildcards for the match at Whistling Straits from September 24-26.
East Lake had some good and some bad news for the US skipper.
The good: that Patrick Reed, less than three weeks after a bout of bilateral pneumonia played all four rounds decently enough to finish ahead of four when we thought he was just pitching up to collect his near-$400,000 last-place prize money.
The bad: that Brooks Koepka had a recurrence of the wrist trouble which keeps dogging his career after playing a shot from the rough and withdrew after two holes of his final round, his part in the Ryder Cup very much in the balance.
‘Captain America’ Reed will almost certainly get one of Stricker’s wildcards - he has six to announce - and let’s hope he does.
Not everybody loves him, but he is a good guy - young Scot Robert MacIntyre can’t speak highly enough about the help he got from the Texan over in the States.
Harrington names his three following the Wentworth climax and it will come as a shock if Garcia, who played well enough when sixth in Maryland and 14th alongside McIlroy at East Lake, is not there.
Matchplay specialist and mascot Poulter looks likely to get another and I’m hoping the third will be Alex Noren after the 25/1 shot has won the PGA title for a second time on Sunday or at least played a prominent part in it.
The gutsy, unflashy Swede, a ten times winner in Europe and BMW PGA champion four years ago after eagling the last for a 62, covered the last seven holes in six under par to swoop past Francesco Molinari.
He is just the type of experienced golfer Pod needs.
He made a bold defence of that title when third to Molinari the following year when the little Italian was winning everything bar the Boat Race and won two out of three in that year’s victorious Ryder Cup side in Paris.
And, although he has yet to break his duck in the States where this 39-year-old has been plying his trade for the last three years, he’s in the best form of this year, following fourth at the Northern Trust with another top ten at the BMW last time out.
Noren almost pulled it off with his trademark whirlwind last round in Detroit but hit two weedy putts on the last two holes of his 64 and just missed out, while 16th at the Olympics was another fair effort.
A big showing here must sway Harrington after so many Ryder pretenders have not delivered.
Wiesberger’s jittery surrender in Crans was shocking, Stenson’s fourth in Prague and third in Crans were best of a bad year but after flattering early he faded away in Rome, while Kaymer never looks comfortable in contention … and so on and so on.
Frenchman Victor Perez was in the driving seat for a place but hasn’t produced when it mattered.
As runner-up to Tyrrell Hatton last year, he might yet put his hat in the ring but Noren would be my wildcard.
Barring his way are two who featured fairly prominently in the Tour Championship, Viktor Hovland and past FedEx Cup winner Billy Horschel, Hovland fifth, Horschel ninth, although, deducting the start Horschel had to concede, there was only a shot between them.
They came over two years ago, Horschel finishing fourth to Danny Willett and Hovland, a better player now and 9/1 favourite this week, 11th.
I could not put you off either but defending champion Hatton is probably easier to swerve as he had a thin time by his own demanding standards.
A winner first time out in Abu Dhabi, he has rarely threatened to replicate that since although he was runner-up at Congaree.
More recently and now a married man, he missed the cut in the last two Majors and, in his latest outing, at the Northern Trust.
A timely confidence-booster for the Ryder battle ahead is much needed.
Preference is for the South Africans with no hard Ryder on their mind.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who looked as if he might win here in 2019 when third, warmed up with a similar finish in the Korn Ferry Championship on Sunday.
I like his game and his chances, while Branden Grace and young lefty Garrick Higgo are also hard to ignore.
Aussie ace Adam Scott pays a rare visit to Britain.
His long, straight driving on this claustrophobic, tree-lined course, a 7267-yard par 72 with five really tough par fours and two out of four pretty straight-forward fives - it used the be three until they put a stream in front of the 18th - will stand him in good stead.
While Tommy Fleetwood’s second in Italy was the closest he’s got in a moderate year, it was still disappointing he could not get past inexperienced leader Nicolai Hojgaard on Sunday, the 20-year-old following twin brother Rasmus into the winner’s enclosure.
Best of those who have already made their Ryder Cup case could well be Shane Lowry who has been playing nicely for a good while now and has solid Wentworth form (13-11-15-6 the last four years, 12th 2013, runner-up 2014, sixth 2015).
If you’re looking for a three-figure longshot - and there have been plenty of three-figure winners, not least 500/1 shots Scott Drummond and Simon Khan - Richie Ramsay often plays Wentworth well and at 275/1 you can be brave and risk a quid on Luke Donald.
Yes, the same Luke Donald who once ruled the world and won back-to-back at Wentworth in 2011-12.
Just two bits of encouraging form, 13th at the Nelson in May and 16th at the 3M in late July, but you never know…
Check out how the GM Tipster is getting on this year on our Golf Betting Tips homepage.
BMW PGA Championship Golf Betting Tips 2021 - advised bets
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