I Looked Back At 10 Years Of Masters Winners’ Scorecards… 3 Things REALLY Stand Out

Every golf tournament is different and every victor goes about things in their own unique way, but there are certainly parallels to be drawn between the last ten winners of The Masters.

In this day and age, statistical analysis is a part and parcel of all top-level sport and crunching the numbers can help you identify trends or gain an edge on the competition. 

In that spirit, I’ve looked back at the scorecards of the last ten winners at Augusta National – as well as every Rory McIlroy scorecard from his 14 Masters appearances – and two things really stand out to me (as well as some more general observations).

The 12th Hole At Augusta National

There are many incredible things about Augusta National, one of which is the iconic 12th hole. We all know how dangerous this gem at Augusta National can be, with many Masters challenges falling by the wayside at the famous short hole – see Jordan Spieth in 2016, Francesco Molinari in 2019 and countless others. But the last ten Masters winners have negotiated it with, well, not ease, but aplomb.

None of the champions going back to Jordan Spieth in 2015 have played the 12th in worse than level par for the week – very impressive given it’s historically been the fourth-hardest hole at Augusta. And, what’s more, none of the past ten winners have found the water and chalked up a double- or triple-bogey. Disaster avoidance on 12 is absolutely essential to Masters success.

Reigning Masters Champion Scottie Scheffler played the hole in one-under-par on his way to claiming a second Green Jacket and, In 2020, Dustin Johnson was two-under-par on the 12th, which is the best record of the last ten years.

Amen Corner

Of course, the 12th is part of Amen Corner – perhaps the most famous three-hole stretch in world golf. The 11th is statistically the toughest hole on the course and getting through 11 and 12 – then taking advantage of the par-5 13th – is imperative.

Only one player – Sergio Garcia in 2017 – has been over-par round Amen Corner and gone on to win the Green Jacket. In 2024, Scottie Scheffler played Amen Corner in two-under-par, making just three birdies. A well-timed eagle on the 13th during the third round helped him rescue a decent score for the week around the signature three hole stretch, especially with costly bogeys on 11 (twice) and 13 over the course of the four rounds.

You Are Allowed One Bad Round (But You Must Take Advantage Of The Par-5s)

The final thing that really stood out to me when analysing the scorecards is the fact you can get away with one bad round at The Masters – but only one.

Half of the last ten winners were under-par in every round, but the other five were not. Shooting more than 72 isn’t a death knell in The Masters, presumably because Augusta offers more than its fair share of birdie opportunities. If you can take advantage of those and negotiate the difficult holes, you can make up ground.

The other key to success at Augusta National is capitalising on the par 5s. Remarkably, Danny Willett was only level-par for the long holes when he triumphed in 2016 – the only winner in the last 50 years to not be under-par for the par 5s.

The other nine of the last ten winners have dominated the three-shotters. Willett aside, the worst par-5 performance was -8 (Scheffler in 2022 and Tiger in 2019). Five of the last ten winners have been double digits under-par for the par 5s.

So, you could outsource the work and ask AI to predict the winner of The Masters in 2025, but if you use these interesting trends you should be able to decipher who the next champion will be as the play develops.

Quiz Time: Masters Week Special