‘It Blows My Mind That Rory McIlroy Is Second Favourite To Win The Open At Royal Troon’
Once again, Rory McIlroy is right up there when it comes to the betting favourites for The Open Championship at Troon. But should he really be?
![rory mcilroy signing flags at the 2024 open championship](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/JPo6zKbiaN2kbrG2uqVp75-415-80.jpg)
As I normally do on Tuesday of Open Championship week, I spent some time this morning looking at the odds for the showdown at Royal Troon. Naturally, Scottie Scheffler – a six-time 2024 PGA Tour winner and The Masters and Players Champion – leads the way, but there in second place sits Rory McIlroy.
Despite his ongoing Major drought, this is, of course, nothing new. But I’m becoming increasingly bemused by bookmakers’ modelling and the fact so many people still choose to back him – the two things that determine pricing.
Admittedly, he’s a very difficult person to set odds for because he’s a top-five machine in Majors. This means the lower his outright odds, the lower the payout for a top-five, top-eight or top-ten finish (depending on the bookmaker). There’s no doubt his placing prowess influences his price, but head to any ‘win only’ market and he’s somewhere between 7-8/1. The only other player in single digits is the aforementioned Scheffler.
This blows my mind. I don’t understand how he can possibly be second favourite ahead of the likes of Bryson DeChambeau and Xander Schauffele.
Bryson DeChambeau celebrates winning the 2024 US Open
With fans, there’s obviously an emotional element to betting, but bookmakers’ have strict data-driver algorithms. The data from the last ten years in the all-important category shows no Major wins for McIlroy. I don’t know the percentage weighting between fan betting and modelling in terms of how a price is calculated and adapted, but I do know that Rory shouldn’t be the second favourite for The Open.
I know what you’re thinking – he’s finished inside the top six in six of his last nine Opens and has six Major top-fives since 2020. He was also inches away from claiming the last Major he took part in and he’s a generationally great player, a prolific winner and a mainstay in the world’s top three.
But ten years is a long time without a Major in the peak years of a career. With Rory, it seems we often overlook the evidence and the red flags because we’re so desperate for him to get over the line again. The pundits are the same – go to any list of Open pics and he’ll likely appear multiple times. Is that thinking with the heart or with the head?
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This isn’t an attack on Rory – he’s a fantastic golfer and someone I have a lot of respect for. I just think his long wait for another Major will extend into another season.
Close but no cigar
In my mind, there are clear psychological issues he needs to overcome before I back him in a Major again. His performances in the big four over the last few years have tended to fall into one of three categories: agonising-near misses (see the 2024 US Open), finishing strong after a bad first round (see the 2022 Masters) or starting strong, falling away and salvaging a more than respectable finish (see the 2024 PGA Championship).
There are multiple painful near-misses that come to mind when considering McIlroy’s recent Major performances. Clearly, the US Open is front and centre – and we don't know how that will affect him going forward – but others stung nearly as much.
In 2018, he shot a 74 from the final group at The Masters to finish six behind Patrick Reed. At the 2022 Open, he couldn’t find any birdies coming down the stretch at St Andrews on a day of very low scoring, ultimately finishing two shots behind Cameron Smith, who recorded a final-round 64. And at last year’s US Open, he couldn’t muster a birdie over the final 17 holes, coming in one shot behind Wyndham Clark.
McIlroy looks dejected after the final round of the 2022 Open Championship at St Andrews
Clearly, putting yourself repeatedly in contention means something. But you’d have expected a player of Rory’s calibre – and Major pedigree – to have reigned supreme in at least one of the four tournaments above.
Since his last triumph at the 2014 PGA Championship, the following players have won MULTIPLE Majors: Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson. That doesn’t make for great reading as far as McIlroy is concerned.
I’d love nothing more than to see him land a fifth Major title at Troon and be ridiculed for this piece of work, but McIlroy needs to step up and seize the moment. Chances to win golf’s biggest events won’t continue to come around forever.
Nick Bonfield joined Golf Monthly in 2012 after graduating from Exeter University and earning an NCTJ-accredited journalism diploma from News Associates in Wimbledon. He is responsible for managing production of the magazine, sub-editing, writing, commissioning and coordinating all features across print and online. Most of his online work is opinion-based and typically centres around the Majors and significant events in the global golfing calendar. Nick has been an avid golf fan since the age of ten and became obsessed with the professional game after watching Mike Weir and Shaun Micheel win The Masters and PGA Championship respectively in 2003. In his time with Golf Monthly, he's interviewed the likes of Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Jose Maria Olazabal, Henrik Stenson, Padraig Harrington, Lee Westwood and Billy Horschel and has ghost-written columns for Westwood, Wayne Riley, Matthew Southgate, Chris Wood and Eddie Pepperell. Nick is a 12-handicap golfer and his favourite courses include Old Head, Sunningdale New, Penha Longha, Valderrama and Bearwood Lakes. If you have a feature pitch for Nick, please email nick.bonfield@futurenet.com with 'Pitch' in the subject line. Nick is currently playing: Driver: TaylorMade M1 Fairway wood: TaylorMade RBZ Stage 2 Hybrid: Ping Crossover Irons (4-9): Nike Vapor Speed Wedges: Cleveland CBX Full Face, 56˚, Titleist Vokey SM4, 60˚ Putter: testing in progress! Ball: TaylorMade TP5x
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