Valspar Championship Picks, Predictions And Odds

After Rory McIlroy claimed the PGA Tour's flagship event, The Players Championship, in a Monday playoff, the circuit moves to Palm Harbor in Florida for the Valspar Championship.

The final event of the Florida Swing, almost half of the world's top 50 are set to tee it up at Innisbrook Resort's Copperhead Course, which is ranked as one of the toughest on the calendar.

Last year, Peter Malnati fired a four-under-par final round of 67 for a two stroke victory, with the win his first in nine years.

Founded in 2000, the Valspar Championship has been won by the likes of K.J Choi, Vijay Singh, Retif Goosen, Jim Furyk, Luke Donald and Jordan Spieth, with Spieth one of the big names set to tee it up in Florida.

Among the other names are World No.3 Xander Schauffele, as well as Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry and Justin Thomas, with all looking for strong weeks as The Masters is just three weeks away.

In terms of scoring, a variety of numbers have won this event. For the last four editions it has been double digits but, prior to that, as low as seven-and-eight-under-par has seen a player lifting the trophy.

Valspar Championship Course Guide: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)

Being held at Innisbrook Resort, which has four golf courses on its grounds, the Valspar Championship takes place on the Copperhead Course and has been staged annually.

Located in Palm Harbor, Florida, it's the final event of the Florida Swing and the course itself regularly ranks inside the top 10 on the PGA Tour in terms of toughness.

Like Augusta National, TPC Sawgrass and PGA National, the Copperhead Course has its own famous three-hole stretch known as The Snake Pit.

The holes in question are the 475-yard par 4 16th, the 215-yard par 3 17th and the 445-yard par 4 18th. All feature a mix of deep bunkers, tight landing areas and water, with the final three holes all playing over-par in last year's event.

Away from The Snake Pit, the Copperhead Course measures 7,532 yards and, to play round it, players will rely on accuracy off the tee and pinpoint accuracy in terms of approach shots.

Valspar Championship Previous Winners

Valspar Championship Betting Odds

Outright winner odds from BetMGM (odds correct at time of publishing)

• Justin Thomas (+1200)
• Tommy Fleetwood (+1600)
• Shane Lowry (+1600)
• Sepp Straka (+1600)
• Xander Schauffele (+2000)
• Corey Conners (+2500)
• Michael Kim (+2800)
• J.T. Poston (+2800)
• Will Zalatoris (+2800)
• Akshay Bhatia (+3300)
• Sam Burns (+3300)
• Taylor Moore (+3300)
• Jordan Spieth (+3300)
• Tom Kim (+3300)
• Stephan Jaeger (+4000)
• Alex Smalley (+4000)
• Lucas Glover (+4500)
• All other players are priced at +5000 or higher

Valspar Championship Betting Picks

Elliott Heath

Favorite: Lucas Glover (+4500)

Glover finished a mightily impressive T3 at TPC Sawgrass last week, which followed his T3 at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am last month. The 2009 US Open champion is one of the best ball strikers in the game and, at the age of 45, has re-found his confidence on the greens thanks to the long putter.

He was 11th here last year and should be able to go well again after an excellent performance at The Players Championship. He's not listed right among the favorites so is definitely a good value pick this week.

Outsider: Matt Wallace (+8000)

I'm a big fan of Matt Wallace's game - he has won 12 times as a pro after all - and he has some sneaky good course form this week.

The Englishman was T7 here at Innisbrook in 2023 and T17 last year, and he comes into the event following a solid T26 result in Puerto Rico.

We know how desperate he is to make his Ryder Cup debut and if that is going to happen he needs to start catching Luke Donald eye sooner rather than later, and a win this week would do just that.

Barry Plummer

Favorite: Sepp Straka (+1600)

There were a lot of people who fancied Straka at The Players last week, and I must admit that I was one of them. Despite a glorious stretch of golf from the Austrian, an event of that magnitude on a golf course that challenging might have been a step too far, but this week is one he will realistically fancy himself to win.

Since picking up another PGA Tour win at The American Express, Straka has five top-15 finishes in six starts and is playing some of the best golf of his career. He ranks 8th for Driving Accuracy and 12th for SG: Tee to Green in the last 3 months, two important stats for success at Copperhead. At a respectable price I can see him getting in the mix again.

Outsider: Alex Smalley (+4000)

I've gone for another player who had a great week at The Players and has quietly been banking decent finishes since the start of 2025. Alex Smalley was well in the tournament for the majority of the week at TPC Sawgrass, which is impressive when you consider the strength of field. This isn't as strong, so adding to his run of six top-21 finishes in his last seven starts is certainly on the cards.

While a top-20 bet would be a no-brainer for me this week, I actually think he can make a charge for the title here as he ranks 20th for Driving Accuracy and 23rd for SG: Tee to Green in the last three months. That's the profile that often leads to success here and when you consider he has strong finishes at the 3M Open and the RSM Classic, two courses with great correlations, this becomes a very appealing each-way bet.

Jonny Leighfield

Favorite: Justin Thomas (+1200)

Notwithstanding the two middling finishes most recently, Thomas has been playing some excellent golf so far this season which has centred around his world-class ball striking from tee to green. When he's putted even just moderately well in 2025, he's generally contended so, at an event which has historically brought the best out of Thomas, I'm backing him to win the Valspar in 2025.

He has four top-20s in seven starts at the event and only three of those featured decent putting performances. If he can produce his usual A-game from tee to green and gain more than half a stroke with the putter, no one will beat him. It's a big IF after his Players display, but it's a gamble I'd be willing to take.

Outsider: Nicolai Hojgaard (+10000)

Hojgaard is yet to play this event in his career, but I feel like the Copperhead Course might well suit his game quite nicely and I can foresee a good result coming the Dane's way. He is a long hitter who also possesses a strong iron game, so that should give him the perfect platform to kick on and go low if he can warm his putter up sufficiently.

He missed the cut at The Players, but that was the first MC he'd suffered in his previous 10 appearances, so I'm hoping Hojgaard will bounce back in style under far less pressure this week.

Matt Cradock

Favorite: Corey Conners (+2500)

The Canadian has been in a fine run of form over the past few weeks, registering a solo third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a share of sixth at The Players Championship, with Conners also finishing T5 at The Sentry at the start of the season.

Innisbrook Resort rewards accurate ball strikers and, if you look at Conners' stats, he is inside the top 20 of Driving Accuracy Percentage, as well as 32nd in Greens In Regulation. If his putting begins to work then I can see him making another strong showing this week.

Outsider: Niklas Norgaard (+8000)

On a course where an all-round game should play a big part, I have selected Niklas Norgaard who, currently, ranks 18th in the Strokes Gained: Total and 28th in the SG: Tee-to-Green category.

Norgaard is finding his feet on the PGA Tour but, given that it's his debut season on the circuit, he has registered a T25 at the Cognizant Classic and a T34 at both the Mexico Open and Puerto Rico Open. He's a great ball striker and, like Conners, if he can get the putter going, I believe he can unlock the key for a fine result in Florida.

How To Watch The Valspar Championship

US/ET

• Thursday 20th March: 7.30am - 2.00pm (PGA Tour Live/ESPN+) 2.00 - 6.00pm (NBC Sports App/Golf Channel)
• Friday 21st March: 7.30am - 2.00pm (PGA Tour Live/ESPN+) 2.00 - 6.00pm (NBC Sports App/Golf Channel)
• Saturday 22nd March: 7.45am - 1.00pm (PGA Tour Live/ESPN+) 1.00 - 3.00pm (NBC Sports App/Golf Channel) 3.00 - 6.00pm (NBC/Peacock/NBC Sports App)
• Sunday 23rd March: 7.45am - 1.00pm (PGA Tour Live/ESPN+) 1.00 - 3.00pm (NBC Sports App/Golf Channel) 3.00 - 6.00pm (NBC/Peacock/NBC Sports App)

UK/GMT

• Thursday 20th March: 11.30am - 10.00pm (Sky Sports Golf)
• Friday 21st March: 11.30am - 10.00pm (Sky Sports Golf)
• Saturday 22nd March: 11.45am - 10.00pm (Sky Sports Golf)
• Sunday 23rd March: 11.45am - 10.00pm (Sky Sports Golf)

Golf Monthly Betting Picks: Best Results 2025