The American Express Picks, Predictions And Odds

After two weeks in Hawaii, the PGA Tour returns to California and The American Express, a tournament that is played over three courses the first three days, before culminating at the PGA West's Dye Stadium Course on Sunday.

Last year, it was Nick Dunlap who made history, as the then college sophomore fired a 29-under-par total to claim a one shot victory and become the first amateur to win on the PGA Tour since Phil Mickelson back in 1991.

This year, a bumper field is set to be present in Coachella Valley and, despite World No.2 Xander Schauffele withdrawing on Monday, there's still some great value to be had across the board.

Among the big names include Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay and Rickie Fowler, whilst Tom Kim, SungJae Im and last weeks Sony Open winner, Nick Taylor, compete for the $1.53 million first prize.

Being played over three courses, the winning score has been consistently high, with the 20-under-par mark being surpassed for the last 18 years. Therefore, we can expect a lot of birdies and eagles to be made over the next four days of action.

Last year, Dunlap's 29-under-par total set the tournament's scoring record since it turned into a 72-hole competition in 2012. What's more, with the wind set to be low and temperatures high, don't be surprised to see low-scoring once again.

The American Express Course Guide: Pete Dye Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club & Nicklaus Tournament Course

The three courses set to host are the Pete Dye Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club & Nicklaus Tournament Course, with the Pete Dye Stadium Course staging the final day of play.

Regarding distance, all sit in the 7,000 - 7,200 yard mark, with La Quinta measuring 7,060 yards, Nicklaus Tournament Course being 7,147 yards and Pete Dye Stadium Course 7,210 yards.

Because of the short distance, as well as the perfect conditions, the winning score since 2016 averages 24.5-under-par and, in terms of previous rounds, we have seen two 59s - David Duval in 1999 at PGA West and Adam Hadwin at La Quinta in 2017.

In terms of course features, Pete Dye Stadium Course has a number of memorable holes, with the closing stretch a particular stand-out.

The 600-yard par 5 16th has a 20-foot-deep greenside bunker on the left hand-side, whilst the par 3 17th features an island green surrounded by rocks, hence the nickname 'Alcatraz.'

The American Express Previous Winners

The American Express Betting Odds

Outright winner odds from BetMGM (odds correct at time of publishing)

• Sungjae Im (+1200)
• Justin Thomas (+1200)
• Sam Burns (+1400)
• Patrick Cantlay (+1400)
• Wyndham Clark (+2000)
• Tony Finau (+2000)
• Tom Kim (+2500)
• Kurt Kitayama (+2800)
• Max Greyserman (+3300)
• Harry Hall (+3500)
• Si Woo Kim (+3500)
• Cameron Young (+3500)
• Will Zalatoris (+3500)
• J.J Spaun (+4000)
• Davis Thompson (+4000)

The American Express Betting Picks

Elliott Heath

Favorite: Sam Burns (+1400)

The US Ryder Cupper from 2023 is on a near-two-year win drought after knocking off five wins between May 2021 and March 2023. He could well get back in the winner’s circle this week at a course he was T6 at last year, thanks to some very nice recent form.

Burns was T8 at The Sentry two weeks ago after ending his 2024 with five consecutive top-14 finishes, including two top-threes in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Burns was also T11 here in 2023 and T6 again in 2020.

Outsider: Patrick Fishburn (+4500)

I’ve been very impressed with Patrick Fishburn over the last six-or-so months. He has some very good stats, including around the green and putting, so is a good one to have this week on a low-scoring course that requires birdie after birdie.

Fishburn was T6 last week at the Sony Open after two third-place finishes and two other top-eights on tour in the second half of last year.

Matt Cradock

Favorite: Justin Thomas (+1200)

Justin Thomas has been playing some fine golf of late, securing a runner-up finish at the ZOZO Championship, as well as a third place finish at the Hero World Challenge.

Last year at this event, the American finished in a share of third and, had it not been for a disappointing final day, he may well have won. Either way, JT possesses a lot of quality and, given this course requires you to go low, I can see Thomas in contention once again.

Outsider: Nico Echavarria (+5000)

In all honesty, I can't believe Echavarria's odds, especially when you look at his previous results of a second place finish at the Sony Open and The RSM Classic, as well as that victory at the ZOZO Championship.

The Colombian golfer is in fine form and, like Thomas, had it not been for a poor final round in 2024, he may well have crept into the top 10. Looking at his stats, he ranks well in both scoring average and birdie average so, in a tournament where low scoring is a must, I like his chances to be in the fray come Sunday.

Jonny Leighfield

Favorite: Sungjae Im (+1200)

The Korean found a real purple patch around the turn of the year with three top-10s in four starts and a best of third at The Sentry a couple of weeks back. This kind of event really plays into Im's hands, with a really low winning total expected and Sungjae one of the most prolific birdie scorers in the PGA Tour last season.

He last won on the Korean Tour in April, but hasn't entered the winner's circle on the PGA Tour since 2021. This week represents an excellent chance for him to snap that streak.

Outsider: Ben Griffin (+5000)

Griffin is another of the PGA Tour's best when it comes to recording birdies, topping the chart in 2024 thanks to a mammoth 479 - 33 better than anyone else.

The American was knocking on the door through the FedEx Cup Fall, going best at the Bermuda Championship when he ended eighth, and has likely knocked off the rust after playing at the Sony Open. Hopefully, into his second consecutive week, Griffin will be right among the leaders and can hang on for his latest top-10.

How To Watch The American Express

US (ET)

• Thursday 16th January - 16.00pm - 19.00pm (Golf Channel) 12.15pm - 19.00pm (ESPN)
• Friday 17th January - 16.00pm - 19.00pm (Golf Channel) 12.15pm - 19.00pm (ESPN)
• Saturday 18th January - 16.00pm - 19.00pm (Golf Channel) 12.15pm - 19.00pm (ESPN)
• Sunday 19th January - 16.00pm - 19.00pm (Golf Channel) 11.30am - 19.00pm (ESPN)

UK (GMT)

• Thursday 16th January - 16.30pm - 12.00pm (Sky Sports Golf)
• Friday 17th January - 16.30pm - 12.00pm (Sky Sports Golf)
• Saturday 18th January - 19.00pm - 12.00pm (Sky Sports Golf)
• Sunday 19th January - 18.30pm - 12.00pm (Sky Sports Golf)