Sanderson Farms Championship Betting Picks and Predictions

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Sanderson Farms Championship: Course Preview

The Country Club of Jackson

After a highly emotional week in Rome, golf bettors are in for a major exhale as we return to regular PGA Tour 72-hole stoke play. The Sanderson Farms Championship has been annually held on the PGA Tour since 1968. It was hosted at a number of courses, including Hattiesburg Country Club and Annandale Golf Club, before moving to its current home in 2014, the Country Club of Jackson. In the past, this tournament was played opposite a major or limited field event. It then became part of the Fall series, went back to being an opposite field event, and switched schedule spots a few more times before finally being upgraded to a full status event as part of the Fall series. While many of the game’s top name are resting up after an eventful few days across the pond, Ludvig Aberg is the only player to have participated in the Ryder Cup that is currently in the field. Aberg represents all the star power in Missisippi, but players such as Stephan Jaeger, Eric Cole, Alex Smalley, and Mark Hubbard will look to their stamp their resume with the elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Country Club of Jackson Key Stats

• Proximity 200 yards plus
• Birdies or Better Gained
• Strokes Gained Putting: Bermuda-grass

Since debuting as the host venue in 2014, we've seen an eclectic range of winners at the Country Club of Jackson. All shapes and sizes can compete here. In 2021 and 2022, we saw two of the best players in the field (and two excellent ball-strikers) in Sergio Garcia and Sam Burns claim victory. Yet last year, Mackenzie Hughes, who is far more known for short game and putting prowess, triumphed in a playoff over Sepp Straka. 

We should not expect the tournament favorite to have some massive leg up here, as the Country Club of Jackson does not do the best job of separating average from elite tee to green play. If we go back a couple of years, we've seen players such as Ryan Armour, Cody Gribble, and Peter Malnati, all marginal PGA Tour pros at best, rise to the top of the leaderboard. We can litigate how much distance matters in the stats section, but any tournament that can be won by Ryan Armour and Cameron Champ in consecutive years tells us everything we need to know about the golf course. Any strong opinions should be loosely held.

The golf course itself is a standard par 72, with four par threes, ten par fours, and four par fives. What you see is what you get at the Country Club of Jackson. This course features some of the most banal architecture on Tour, which is really saying something. 

In fact, the Country Club of Jackson might be the flattest and straightest golf course that we see all year, outside of maybe Torrey Pines. In terms of its architectural identity, think of the Country Club of Jackson as a shorter, easier, Bermuda-grass version of Torrey Pines. The course is all out in front of you. There aren't any tricks to it, and the biggest defense it has is its length, the unpredictability of the Bermuda rough, and the potential for wind. 

As we know by now however, sheer length is not what makes a golf course difficult for PGA Tour pros. Firm and fast conditions are, and this course can get challenging if we get some wind and heat to bake it out. It generally ranks as one of the easiest courses on Tour, but it has been trending in the tougher direction. Last year, it ranked 27th out of 41 courses in difficulty, and we did see a bit of spiciness by Sunday.

Predict the top three finishers in order at this week's Sanderson Farms Championship for a chance to win this Golf Monthly x OddsChecker free-to-play golf contest.

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Sanderson Farms Championship Picks

Stephan Jaeger (+2200) (Bet $100 to collect $2,300) For the best Stephan Jaeger odds go to DraftKings

I’m not proud of this, but my numbers have Stephan Jaeger as the strongest course fit in this entire field. Jaeger may not be elite at any one skill, but he is far and away the most well-rounded player in Jackson. The German ranks 13th in strokes gained off the tee, 20th in proximity 200 yards plus, third in strokes gained around the green on Bermuda-grass, 21st in opportunities gained, seventh in birdies or better gained, sixth in par five scoring, and fourth tee to green on Bermuda courses. While he is coming off a ho-hum 45th at the Fortinet Championship, he played far better than the results would indicate. Jaeger gained 2.2 strokes off the tee and 3.1 strokes on approach in Napa, while simply falling victim to a faulty putter. We’ve seen Jaeger develop an incredibly high baseline of consistency over the last calendar year, making 13 straight cuts, not an easy feat on the PGA Tour. The next natural progression is for him to start contending, and I fully believe he will work his way onto the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon in Jackson.

As you can see, it is imperative that you compare the Sanderson Farms Championship odds at OddsChecker.

Stephan Jaegar is now best-priced at +2200 at DraftKings and BetMGM, and +2000 at Bet365, a stark $200 difference in returns. Make sure to pick the best sportsbook for your Stephan Jaegar pick with OddsChecker.

Peter Kuest (+8000) (Bet $100 to collect $8,100) BetMGM has the best Peter Kuest odds

Given the strength of field and previous winners, one could make an argument for pretty much anyone in the field this week in Jackson. Allow me to make the case for Peter Kuest, who my numbers suggest is one of the strongest course fits in the field. We’ve seen players such as Cameron Young and Cameron Champ over-power this golf course with their driver, and Kuest is one of the longest players in this field. The second essential skill that Kuest possesses is long iron play. He ranks seventh in this field in proximity from 200 yards plus, where close to 30% of all approach shots at the Country Club of Jackson come from. Kuest also ranks ninth in this field in birdies or better gained, and 11th in par five scoring. At a macro level, I am looking for under-valued players this week who possess some pop off the tee, are strong from 200 yards plus, and make birdies in bunches. Kuest checks all of those boxes with flying colors, and this is the ideal spot for him to collect his first PGA Tour victory.

Once again, OddsChecker odds comparison tool comes to the fore, as there is a difference of $2,500 to $1,400 in returns when you bet $100 on Peter Kuest at BetMGM rather than DraftKings and Bet365.