RSM Classic Betting Picks and Predictions

The PGA Tour heads to St. Simon’s Island for the RSM Classic, the final event of the 2023 calendar year. The RSM Classic debuted on the PGA Tour in October of 2010 at Sea Island Golf Club in St. Simons Island, Georgia. Since 2015, the event has been played at both the Seaside and Plantation courses, featuring a full field of 156 players. 

The RSM Classic always attracts a solid field, as Sea Island is an extremely common home base for professional golfers. Jonathan Byrd, Harris English, Brian Harman, Zach Johnson, Patton Kizzire, Matt Kuchar, Keith Mitchell, Andrew Novak, J.T. Poston, Greyson Sigg, Michael Thompson, and tournament host Davis Love III, among others, all cite Sea Island as their permanent residence. Along with the Sea Island Mafia, 2023 Open Championship winner, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Eric Cole, Corey Conners, Denny McCarthy, Ludvig Aberg, and defending champion, Adam Svensson, will all be making the trip to Georgia.

Before we get into our picks for the RSM Classic, make sure to take a moment to check out these awesome sports betting offers for this week. We have teamed up with OddsChecker to ensure that you claim $1000s in first-bet bonuses so that you can bet on these 2023 RSM Classic selections with more confidence this week.

RSM Classic: Course Preview

Sea Island (Seaside/Plantation)

It's not a coincidence that PGA Tour pros love Sea Island. It's an insular, modern, and well-manicured facility that features three courses: the Plantation, Seaside, and Retreat. The RSM Classic is held only at the Seaside and Plantation courses, as players will each play a round at the Seaside and Plantation on Thursday and Friday. Those who make the cut will play their final 36 holes at the Seaside Course. With 75% of the tournament, including the final two days, being held at the Seaside Course, I would recommend focusing the majority of our attention on the Seaside Course. Also, we have far more information on the Seaside course, as it employs shot-tracker data. The Plantation Course is unfortunately devoid of such valuable data. Luckily, there is not a discernible difference between the two courses. The main distinction between the two is that Plantation course generally plays easier because it features two extra par fives. Still, it really comes down to the wind, as we have seen instances where the Plantation course actually plays more challenging in gusting winds.

Turning our full attention to the Seaside course, the Harry Colt design features large greens and extremely generous fairways. Playing under 7,000 yards, it's the third-shortest course that players will face all year, with the second-shortest set of par fours on the PGA Tour. The course's greatest defense is the wind, but winning scores across the past five years have ventured past 19 under par. Each of the last five years it has ranked as one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour, but not within the top 10 easiest. The Seaside does feature four fairly stout par threes that measure between 179 and 223 yards. Ten of the 12 par fours measure between 405 and 455 yards, which explains the fact that nearly 60% of all approach shots at the Seaside course come from between 125 and 175 yards. The closing hole, which measures 470 yards, is the only par four on the property that measures over 455 yards. The pair of par fives play as the two easiest holes on the course, with the 15th playing more like a par four and a half, yielding a scoring average of 4.42 and a birdie rate of 51%.

Ultimately, the Seaside course (the Plantation is just as, if not easier) is one of the more benign tests that players will face all year. Just like last week in Bermuda, be sure to monitor the weather report as we get closer to Thursday. This event (historically at least) is not as wind-affected as the Butterfield Bermuda, but both courses are still heavily exposed and weather generally plays at least some factor over the course of the event.

Port Royal Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Putting: Bermuda-grass
• Long-Term Proximity: 125 yards- 200 yards
• Strokes Gained Total: Courses under 7,200 yards

Predict the top three finishers in order (1st through 3rd) at this week's RSM Classic for a chance to win this Golf Monthly x OddsChecker free-to-play golf contest.

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RSM Classic: Outright Picks

J.T. Poston (+3500) (Bet $100 to collect $3,600) For the best J.T. Poston odds go to FanDuel

J.T. Poston is always a player I have interest in on shorter, Bermuda, wedge heavy golf courses. The North Carolina native is coming off a third-place finish at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open where he gained over five strokes on approach and five strokes putting. That is exactly the formula this week at Sea Island. Poston is a top-five player in this field from 125-175, where close to 50% of all approach shots at the Seaside course come from. 

He also ranks third in this field in strokes gained total on courses under 7,200 yards over the last two years, and both of his career wins have come on wedge heavy birdie-fests. A top-15 player in opportunities gained and birdies or better gained as well,  there are few players in this field I trust more to put his foot on the pedal and score. Coming off a 21st place finish at this track where he gained 4.6 strokes ball-striking, expect the Postman to play a factor once again.

As you can see, it is imperative that you compare the RSM Classic odds at OddsChecker. 

Alex Smalley is now best-priced at +3500 at DraftKings and FanDuel, +3300 at Bet365, and +2900 at BetMGM; a stark $200 to 700 difference in returns. Make sure to pick the best sportsbook for your Alex Smalley pick with OddsChecker.

Alex Smalley (+6000) (Bet $100 to collect $6,100) Head over to FanDuel to get the best Alex Smalley odds

Alex Smalley was a headline selection for us last week at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, and he somewhat disappointed with a 30th place finish, fueled by a Sunday 65, his best round of the week by three shots. At a juicier number, and a course where he finished fifth at last year, I see absolutely zero reason to hop off. There are a lot of similarities between Port Royal and Sea Island, and it should not come as a surprise that he has excelled at both. 

Similar to last week’s test, Sea Island is an extremely short, coastal course, with magnanimous fairways and large greens that heavily emphasize wedge play and Bermuda putting. Smalley remains one of the best iron players in this entire field, and he ranks second in opportunities gained. Due to a balky putter, the former Duke University standout is largely underperforming based on the birdie opportunities that he is generating for himself. Some positive regression with the flat-stick is coming soon, and Smalley is one of the biggest risers on Bermuda greens. We’ve seen players with the Alex Smalley profile succeed at this event time and again, and I expect the 27-year-old to collect his first victory in the 2023 PGA Tour finale.

Once again, OddsChecker odds comparison tool comes to the fore, as there is a difference of $500 to $1,500 in returns when you bet $100 on Alex Smalley at FanDuel rather than DraftKings, BetMGM, and Bet365.