Open Championship Betting Picks and Predictions

In a golf year mired with conflict and controversy, we have finally made it to the final major of the year. The Open Championship returns to Royal Liverpool, a historic track in the small, coastal, English town of Hoylake. After a fifty-plus year absence, Royal Liverpool was given another chance to host an Open in 2006, which was won by an emotional Tiger Woods in the wake of the loss of his father. 

The Open returned to Liverpool in 2014, where a young and brazen Rory McIlroy bludgeoned the windswept track to oblivion, averaging nearly 330 yards off the tee and triumphing over Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia. 

Many changes have been made to the golf course by famed architect Martin Ebert before this year’s Open Championship, but as is always the case in links golf, this tournament will ultimately be characterized by what the weather has in store. Storylines are abound this week at the final major of the year, as Rory McIlroy looks to end his nine year major drought at a familiar venue, Scottie Scheffler hopes to cap his historic ball-striking run with another major, and LIV players such as Cameron Smith and Brooks Koepka attempt to further justify their place in the game on the world’s biggest stage. If history has shown us anything about Royal Liverpool, we are certainly in store for a worthy champion.

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Open Championship: Course Preview

Royal Liverpool

Royal Liverpool was designed in 1871 by Robert Chambers and George Morris, but was re-modeled in 1895 by Harry Colt. The course was left largely untouched for over 100 years, before Martin Ebert was hired by the Royal and Ancient to make more alterations ahead of this year’s Open. 

The most notable change comes in the form of a new 17th hole, “Little Eye,” which replaces the old 15th hole. “Little Eye” is a rugged little par three, measuring just 135 yards and playing to a table-top, elevated, infinity green surrounded by pot bunkers. Distance control and judgement of swirling winds will be absolutely paramount coming down the stretch, as the 17th tee shot is one that players are certain to be thinking about all round. 

The 18th hole has also undergone a notable transformation, as the tee was moved back 50 yards, and significantly further to the right, while the out of bounds has been moved 20 yards further left. The fairway now appears just a handful of yards wide from the tee, and out of bounds and cavernous bunkers loom in both directions. The 18th at Liverpool is an apt closer for a golf course that is characterized by its hazards. Internal out of bounds comes into play on six different holes, and Ebert also re-positioned all of the fairway bunkers to account for modern driving distances. 

While Liverpool does not possess the grand sand dunes of a Royal St. George’s or Royal Birkdale, it makes up for its lack of topographical intrigue with its quirk and beauty. Due to the lack of sand dunes and flatness of the terrain, Liverpool is arguably the most exposed golf course to the wind on the Open rota. There is nowhere to hide at Hoylake, and if the wind really gets going, expect carnage to ensue. 

Unfortunately, only modern winds and a bit of rain are in the forecast for this week, and despite Ebert’s changes, I would still expect a winning score in the 12 to 15 under range. 

The par was changed from 72 to 71, as the 10th hole now plays as a 510-yard par four instead of a 530-yard par five. 

Ultimately, the name of the game at Royal Liverpool is avoiding landmines off the tee. In 2006, Tiger Woods deployed an incredibly restrained gameplan, opting for 2-iron instead of driver on nearly every hole, and surgically taking the course apart to the tune of an 86% driving accuracy percentage. Rory McIlroy played a bit more aggressively in 2014, but he still was an incredibly accurate off the tee. 

It should not come as a surprise that four of the top-five players on the 2014 leaderboard have also won at TPC Sawgrass, and there has been a strong correlation between Royal Liverpool and PGA National as well. Both TPC Sawgrass and PGA National are similarly characterized by their hazards, and those who are victorious are often disciplined players that stay out of trouble at all costs. The last man standing this week will unequivocally be one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in this field, and one with elite distance control of their mid to long irons. Experience on links courses is always preferred, but Collin Morikawa and Cameron Smith have broken the seal in recent years in terms of talent trumping links experience.

Open Championship Key Stats

• Long-term Proximity 175 yards plus
• Driving Accuracy: Courses with Consequence of Miss
• Strokes Gained Short Game: Firm Conditions

Open Championship: Outright Winner

Scottie Scheffler (+800) (Bet $100, to collect $950) BetMGM has the Best Scottie Scheffler Odds

Something just wouldn’t feel right about Scottie Scheffler ending the 2023 season without a major. We’ve reached a point where I’m running out of adjectives to accurately describe the ball-striking run that Scheffler is on right now. Historic is a good place to start, but we are now entering territory that I don’t believe will ever be matched again. Scheffler has now gained over two strokes off the tee in 14 straight starts. He’s gained over two strokes on approach in 10 straight starts, and over six on approach in five straight starts. Scheffler is the best iron player in the world, and it’s not particularly close. His gap in tee-to-green play from the next best is even starker. 

The former Masters champion has gained over seven strokes ball-striking in 14 straight starts, which has never been done in the strokes gained era, not even by Tiger. 

Scheffler has now finished in the top-12 in 16 straight starts, another feat that not even Tiger has neared. Currently, he's finished in the top five in seven straight starts, and the World No. 1 is showing absolutely no signs of slowing down. 

A major championship is the most fitting way to put a cap on this momentous run, and I like his fit at Royal Liverpool even more than I did at Oak Hill and Los Angeles Country Club.

 Scheffler’s biggest advantage over Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm is that he is a more accurate driver of the ball than both of them, and Royal Liverpool penalizes big misses in a way that our first three majors simply did not. 

It should not come as a surprise that four of the top-five players on the 2014 leaderboard at Hoylake all won the PLAYERS Championship, a tournament that Scheffler triumphed in this year. His game was built for majors, and the former University of Texas standout has finished top 10 in nine of his last 12 majors. 

I would not be surprised if this is the first of multiple Open Championship victories for a player that is already on the precipice of greatness and accomplishing things from a ball-striking perspective that we have never seen before. Nearly double digits on a player of this caliber is a gift and something we might not see again for a very long time.

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Scottie Scheffler is now best-priced at +800 at Caesars, and just +650 at FanDuel, a stark $150 difference in returns. Make sure to pick the best sportsbook for your Scottie Scheffler pick, with OddsChecker.

Justin Rose (+6000) (Bet $100 to collect $6,700) - Get the best Justin Rose odds at BetRivers

I have long felt that Justin Rose was a good enough player to win multiple majors, and while a decade has now passed since the Englishman’s 2013 U.S. Open triumph at Merion, he is currently playing some of the best golf of his career. 

Rose’s iron play has me particularly intrigued, as he ranks seventh in this field in approach over the past two months, and is one of the best long-term players from 175 yards plus in this field as well. 

Rose also possesses one of the most trustable short games in this field, and he has a proven track of record success on links golf courses, with nine top-25s in 19 Open starts, including a runner-up at Carnoustie in 2018. 

Avoiding landmines and keeping the ball in play is the name of the game at Royal Liverpool, and Rose’s track record at TPC Sawgrass and PGA National leaves me feeling incredibly optimistic that the 42-year-old can navigate a course littered with hazards. Coming off a missed cut at the Scottish Open where he still gained strokes on approach, Rose’s number is more than fair this week, and I fully expect him to find his way onto the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon in Hoylake.

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