Joburg Open Golf Betting Tips 2021
Well, what a sow’s ear Rory McIlroy made of defending his lead in the season-ending Tour Championship, the final event before the European Tour metamorphoses into the DP World Tour with a prize money hike through the $200m barrier, an extra Rolex week and 47 global tournaments, 23 in Europe and 24 in the rest of the world.
The “rest” of course includes the USA with its three Majors, four WGC specials and now three co-sanctioned events, the Scottish Open and those second-tier PGA Tour minnows, the Barbasol and Barracuda.
As the Barbasol and Scottish run alongside each other and the Barracuda alongside The Open, I’m not quite sure what the benefit will be to European golfers but all will doubtless be revealed in due course.
McIlroy continues to be a disaster for punters. Sure, he had one piece of bad luck but the 6/1 favourite’s meltdown was embarrassing. If he were a racehorse, he’d merit the dreaded Timeform squiggle, signifying a quirky or unreliable nag.
He has wonderful attributes and finer skills than the winner Collin Morikawa but the Smiling Assassin has two that are very variable in the mercurial Irishman, focus and killer instinct.
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The wretched break on the 15th came when his approach ricocheted off the flag into a bunker, turning a possible three into a five, but luck levels out - he had a great break at the 17th the day before when his water-bound ball miraculously stayed above ground - and he had looked shaky earlier in that fateful final round, notably when taking three to get down from just off the 14th green. When birdie fours at the two par fives were vital, he took a five and six, tellingly missing short putts each time. And dropped shots at three of the last four holes.
Even punters who had backed him each-way lost. Joint-sixth (of three), beaten five shots, from the winning position he had been in less than an hour earlier - just not acceptable from a player many still think is the most talented in the world.
I know which out of Rory and Collin I’d be backing to win more Majors in the next five years … the deadly finisher who once he gets a sniff takes no prisoners. Just wish the media didn’t keep making excuses for Rory. Just because he’s won two run-of-the-mill American tournaments doesn’t mean he’s had a good year. Just look at when it has REALLY mattered.
The riddle of Rory will be the talk at the 19th hole through the winter months - actually we’ll see him again soon, he’s 15/2 favourite for the all-star 19-man field for the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas on December 2-5 - but more mundane matters first … the Joburg Open, historic as the first tournament on the DP World Tour.
On the 7,506 yard par 71 Firethorn course where JB Hansen made his Tour breakthrough last year, it is also the first leg of three pre-Christmas South African Swing events and hopefully the next two, the SA Open and the Alfred Dunhill, will attract better fields than this one.
Dean Burmester, £167,000 richer after sharing sixth place with McIlroy and Ian Poulter in Dubai, Is favourite but was only 18th last time in Joburg despite the course favouring bombers - one drive by runner-up Wilco Nienaber was measured at 439 yards - and who knows how fresh he’ll be after four sticky days in the desert. The Tenerife winner can be awesome but is far from consistent. He is still as likely a winner as any but is resistible at single-figure odds.
Anyway, I am by no means certain that big hitting is crucial as the ball flies miles at altitude of nearly 6000 feet.
In Hansen’s absence, 21-year-old Nienaber and long-server Shaun Norris have to be of interest but that remains Nienaber’s best European performance (although he did win for the first time on the Sunshine Tour in April) and it is fair to say he has not made the predicted progress as his 2021 record in Europe outside a sixth at the Spanish Open does not amount to a great deal. Norris doesn’t play much in Europe but fifth in Munich was decent.
Dylan Frittelli, twice a winner in Europe and winner of the 2019 John Deere Classic on the PGA Tour, has had a discouraging time in the States in a year with just the one bright spot, fifth in the Open. With confidence low, he’s a risky proposition and the more solid credentials of the American with the South African name, Johannes Veerman, makes greater appeal.
The Czech Masters winner posted a bundle of good efforts in a strong European campaign and is a far more confident golfer now than when a decent 13th at Randpark in the South African Open at the start of last year. The 52 grand he picked up on Sunday for 21st at Jumeirah will have disappointed him a little as his final round was over par but it was still a pleasing effort.
Justin Harding and past winner George Coetzee are two more locals for your short list. Some young Europeans are of distinct interest, Matt Jordan, Matti Schmid and Marcus Helligkilde in particular.
Wirral 25-year-old Jordan, a 2017 Walker Cupper and 2019 Challenge Tour winner, is progressing slowly but surely, was fourth at Crans, fifth at Vilamoura, sixth at the Hero and posted four sub-par rounds on the Fire Course in Dubai.
Germany’s Schmid, 24 last week, is having only his 13th start but is already making an impression as Dutch runner-up, ninth at the Dunhill Links and 11th in Majorca.
Challenge Tour star Helligkilde could be Denmark’s second Joburg winner in a row. Three times a winner and three times a runner-up on the satellite circuit, he’s won two of his last four starts there, including the Grand Final. Nothing succeeds like success and nobody will come into the week in a more postive frame of mind.
Another Challenge Tour star of 2021, Santiago Tarrio, has also had a superb year but his best form is further back.
It would be an exaggeration to say Frenchman Romain Langasque has had a good year but the 2020 Wales Open winner has shown more recently with four rounds in the 60s on the Fire course at Jumeirah and 11th at difficult Valderrama. When he was runner-up to Louis Oosthuizen at Randpark in the 2019 South African Open, the 2015 Amateur champion - he beat this year’s Hero Open winner Grant Forrest in the final - looked superstar material. That hasn’t happened but he won’t need to be a superstar to contend again on a course with which he has such a positive mental association.
JOBURG OPEN GOLF BETTING TIPS 2021
- 2pts each-way Johannes Veerman at 22/1 with Bet365
- 1.5pts each-way Matthew Jordan at 30/1 with Bet365
- 1pt each-way Marcus Helligkilde at 40/1 with Bet365
- 1pt each-way Matti Schmid at 35/1 with Bet365
- 0.5pt each-way Romain Langasque at 25/1 with Bet365
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