BMW Australian PGA Championship Picks, Predictions And Odds

Just a week after the DP World Tour Championship concluded the 2023-24 campaign, the new season will begin in Australia at the BMW Australian PGA Championship.

The Australian PGA Championship is the first of two tournaments Down Under before the DP World Tour moves on to South Africa for a double-header and Mauritius shortly before Christmas.

From players who narrowly missed out on a PGA Tour card to fresh-faced graduates through the Challenge Tour and Q-School, plus a whole host of top Australian pros which includes Major winners, this week represents a fresh start and the opportunity to kick off the latest DP World Tour season in style.

Some will want to win for the strong portion of available world-ranking points alone while others will simply want to make a great start as they aim to improve on whatever they achieved last term.

Whatever the driving force, there are some big names who we expect to be in contention at Royal Queensland Golf Club, and we've picked out a couple of names each ahead of the first tee shot.

BMW Australian PGA Championship 2024: The Course

Royal Queensland Golf Club in Brisbane is a par-71 layout that will play at just 7,085 yards this week. Opened in 1920, it was designed by three-time Australian Open champion, Carnegie Clark.

The course - which was built upon a mangrove swamp at Parker Island - is mostly flat and was partially redesigned by Mike Clayton in 2007 after the government decided to build a second Gateway Bridge across the Brisbane River in 2005.

The front-nine holes begin in a clockwise fashion around the edge of the grounds - which are located just off the northern bank of the river - before the back nine fits inside that.

Although trees are not often in play here, there is plenty of water and strategically-placed bunkering to keep golfers on their toes. The lowest score at this championship is 22-under, with the record held by three players - Jediah Morgan (2022), Peter Lonard (2006), and Nick O'Hearn (2006).

AUSTRALIAN PGA CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIOUS WINNERS

BMW AUSTRALIAN PGA CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING ODDS

The odds to win outright are via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Jason Day (+750)
• Min Woo Lee (+750)
• Cameron Smith (+900)
• Marc Leishman (+1100)
• Jordan Smith (+1200)
• Lucas Herbert (+1400)
• Victor Perez (+1800)
• Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (+2000)
• Cam Davis (+2000)
• David Micheluzzi (+4000)
• Yannik Paul (+4000)
• John Parry (+4000)
• Adrien Saddier (+4000)
• Angel Ayora (+4500)
• Robin Williams (+5000)
• Daniel Hillier (+5500)
• Oliver Lindell (+5500)
• Todd Clements (+5500)
• Wenyi Ding (+6500)
• Harry Higgs (+7000)

BMW AUSTRALIAN PGA CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING PICKS

Elliott Heath

FAVORITE: Jason Day (+750)

The former World No.1 is back in Australia for the first time in seven years and he’s in the all-star grouping with Cam Smith and Min Woo Lee for the first two rounds. That’s got to get the juices flowing, and Day will be keen to show off his strong form to the home crowd.

The 37-year-old hasn’t won yet this year but has continued his career resurgence with four top-10s, a best finish of T4th at the elevated Wells Fargo Championship and 18 of 21 cuts made.

OUTSIDER: Wenyi Ding (+6500)

The Chinese youngster turned pro recently as the fourth-best amateur in the world after winning the Asia Pacific Amateur Championship in Japan this year and coming second in Australia 12 months prior. He was also T47th at the Australian Open two years ago at the age of 18.

He’s made a seriously impressive start to professional life with four top-13s and one missed cut in five starts, including a T3rd on the Challenge Tour in his pro debut. He has the game and experience of golf in Australia to put in a strong showing this week.

Barry Plummer

FAVORITE: Lucas Herbert (+1400)

Fresh off a win at the NSW Open last week, and a solid end to his LIV Golf season, Lucas Herbert will be full of confidence as he bids to lift the Australian PGA Championship.

Herbert was seventh in this event last year, and seventh again a week later at the Australian Open, so we know that he can handle this test. Seeing off his Ripper GC captain and team-mate Cam Smith last time out will give him a slight edge as they do battle again this week and, at a much bigger price, I think he represents better value.

OUTSIDER: David Micheluzzi (+4000)

Micheluzzi has been knocking on the door in this event, recording finishes of sixth and 18th in his last two visits, so I think he represents great value at this price.

The Australian was one of the top putters on the DP World Tour in the 2024 season, ranking fourth for SG: Putting, which adds to his appeal as that metric appears to point the way to success at Royal Queensland Golf Club.

He has been a runner-up on tour this year, and finished in the top-30 in three of his last five starts. Back on home soil, I am sure he can get closer to the action.

Matt Cradock

FAVORITE: Cameron Smith (+900)

In all honesty, it was a toss up between Min Woo Lee, Lucas Herbert and Smith as to which player I'd choose for this category. But, in the end, it's the former Champion Golfer of the Year I have opted for.

Herbert may have edged out his Ripper GC Captain last week but, had it not been for a very rare poor putting display from Smith, he would have likely won. What's more, coming into an event which he has made a semi-regular habit of winning throughout his career, Smith has a runner-up finish at the Ford NSW Open and Queensland PGA Championship recently.

Okay, they may not be as high-calibre events as the Australian PGA Championship, but form is form and, with a few weeks of competitive golf under his belt, I see Smith challenging come Sunday.

OUTSIDER: Corey Lamb (+100000)

I'll admit that this is a rather big bet but, for someone who has two runner-up finishes in his last three starts, there is some logic behind it! The 23-year-old is one of the many young stars coming out of Australia and, in such a big event in his home country, he'll want to make an impression.

As mentioned, he has two runner-up finishes in his last three starts, both of which came on the PGA of Australasia circuit and one of those was at last week's Ford NSW Open. Obviously, the step-up to the DP World Tour will be significant but, if he can make a solid start, he maybe worth an each-way punt...

Jonny Leighfield

FAVORITE: Cameron Smith (+900)

In an event which he has already won three times, it would be shocking to me if Smith *was not* in contention at Royal Queensland come Sunday. His past two tournaments have been excellent warm-ups for the 'big two' in Australia and a T3rd before a T2nd must surely mean that a fourth title here is on the horizon.

While the LIV player did miss the cut here last season, the Ripper GC captain's other non-win results are fifth (2016), T15th (2017), and T10th (2020). Roared on by the home crowd, a return to Smith's normal putting levels and maintaining his skill around the green will go a long way to picking up the trophy.

OUTSIDER: Wenyi Ding (+6500)

While I normally pick a player based on form and data and then look at the odds afterwards, Elliott has rightly pointed to Ding as a genuine outsider who could play a part in the final groups on Sunday.

His form is so good after turning pro, with the step up not fazing him one bit. At +6500 to win, the Chinese player represents impossible-to-ignore value for an each-way bet.

HOW TO WATCH BMW AUSTRALIAN PGA CHAMPIONSHIP

USA (ET)

• Wednesday, November 20 - Round One: 8:00pm - 9:30pm (NBC Sports App) & 9:30pm - 1:00am (Golf Channel/NBC Sports App)
• Thursday, November 21 - Round Two: 8:00pm - 9:30pm (NBC Sports App) & 9:30pm - 1:00am (Golf Channel/NBC Sports App)
• Friday, November 22 - Round Three: 8:00pm - 9:30pm (NBC Sports App) & 9:30pm - 1:00am (Golf Channel/NBC Sports App)
• Saturday, November 23 - Round Four: 8:00pm - 9:30pm (NBC Sports App) & 9:30pm - 1:00am (Golf Channel/NBC Sports App)

UK (GMT)

• Thursday, November 21 - Round One: 1:30am - 6:00am (Sky Sports Golf)
• Friday, November 22 - Round Two: 1:30am - 6:00am (Sky Sports Golf)
• Saturday, November 23 - Round Three: 1:30am - 6:00am (Sky Sports Golf)
• Sunday, November 24 - Round Four: 1:30am - 6:00am (Sky Sports Golf)

Golf Monthly Betting Picks: Best DP World Tour Results In 2024

• Alfred Dunhill Links Championship: Tyrrell Hatton WIN (+1100) - Jonny Leighfield
• Genesis Championship: Byeong Hun An WIN (+850) - Jonny Leighfield
• Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship: Paul Waring WIN (+12000) - Matt Cradock
• Open de France: Thorbjorn Olesen T2nd (+2200) - Barry Plummer
• Open de France: Yannik Paul T2nd (+4000) - Barry Plummer
• Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship: Tyrrell Hatton 2nd (+650) - Matt Cradock
• Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship: Thorbjorn Olesen T3rd (+2800) - Jonny Leighfield