After the underrated Max Homa played party-pooper to our big 33/1 Wells Fargo hope Keegan Bradley on Sunday, we need to regroup with an eve-of-PGA winner in the Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in Texas.
As Dallas is the closest city to McKinney, this is almost a home game for local aces world No.1 Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth and Will Zalatoris, while Sung Kang, who won the Nelson at Trinity Forest in 2019, is a Craig Ranch member.
This is the second Nelson at Craig Ranch, with victory going to KH Lee last year when he overhauled faltering 54-hole leader Sam Burns who had fired all his bullets in round two with a 62.
The 7,468-yard par 72 was designed by 1973 Open champion Tom Weiskopf and opened in 2004. Until last year, the most important tournaments played there were the 2008 and 2012 Nationwide (now Korn Ferry) Tour Championship. With Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens, its main feature is Rowlett Creek which needs to be navigated no fewer than 14 times. It’s going to hot-hot-hot and humid at 32-33C for the four days. Round one will be the windiest but no more than 15mph.
Dustin Johnson makes his first start after finally tying the knot with longtime partner Paulina Gretzky, the daughter of Canadian ice hockey legend Wayne. He is laid-back almost to the horizontal so his new status is unlikely to affect his game one way or another but he, along with Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka, are the three biggest names in the line-up of 144 searching for a first win in 2022.
DJ has played relatively little - this is only his seventh start of year - and will be fresher than most. Ninth at TPC Sawgrass and 12th at Augusta National showed the ability is still there but at 37 we need to see whether he still has the desire.
Spieth arrives in fine nick after posting his first victory for a long while at Harbour Town, and has course form. He was ninth last year and has the renewed confidence to improve significantly on that finish. True, he will be more committed next week as the PGA is the one missing link in the career Slam chain but he has always been a streaky player, hugely dependent on his around-the-green wizardry. These days he is far from the worst driver in the pack after months of working on that aspect of his game and though it is too early to say he is the same Spieth who once ruled the world, there are more positives than negatives about his prospects this week.
This is Hideki Matsuyama’s first outing since bravely attempting a defence of his Masters title when not fully fit. Since then he was back to Japan being honoured by Prime Minister Fumio so he is unlikely to be as sharp as some.
Koepka hasn’t looked entirely right since resuming after injury and Xander Schauffele is making his Nelson debut. He too is looking for his first solo win of the year although we even got a smile out of him when he and pal Patrick Cantlay were sensational in the Zurich pairs. One for the short list certainly but not sure about the win part of the bet. Not counting New Orleans (I don’t) he is winless for more than three years in the States.
Sam Burns, Valspar winner at the end of March and since then runner-up with Billy Horschel in the New Orleans pairs event, has top credentials when you weave in last’s year’s Craig Ranch form. He looks the value even though he can look a little shaky on Sundays.
Money-machine Scheffler is undoubtedly a worthy favourite but 10/1 in a field with a bit of depth is no great bargain. He can’t win every week and at the odds I would sooner back Zalatoris, 17th at Craig Ranch last year and itching to get that label off his back of being best non-winner on tour. Sixth at the Masters (where he was runner-up last year) and fourth in New Orleans on his latest outings plus second at Torrey Pines and sixth at Pebble Beach early in the campaign, he keeps knocking on the door so often, he will surely find one that’s not locked soon.
Matt Fitzpatrick (2nd) and Rory McIlroy (5th) repaid each-way support last week behind 40/1 winner Homa but aren’t at Craig Ranch and Europe is not as strongly represented. Tommy Fleetwood is getting there slowly and looks the pick of the Europeans on form while (don’t laugh) Luke Donald could make the frame at massive odds. The former world No.1 was far from disgraced in 25th on Sunday (looked like placing higher for much of the week) and his 16th at Torrey Pines was also encouraging. Last year’s 13th at Craig Ranch showed he can handle the course, long though it is.
AT&T Byron Nelson Golf Betting Tips 2022
- Sam Burns 20/1 William Hill (8 places)
- Jordan Spieth 22/1 William Hill (8 places)
- Will Zalatoris 22/1 William Hill (8 places)
- Dustin Johnson 22/1 William Hill (8 places)
- Luke Donald 200/1 William Hill (8 places)
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