Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Picks, Predictions And Odds

The DP World Tour playoffs are here and there is so much on the line for so many of the 70 golfers involved in the $9 million Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship this week.

Not only can anyone step up and land the incredible falcon-topped trophy, but there are 10 PGA Tour cards on the line as well as a tee time at next week's DP World Tour Championship in Dubai.

The Race To Dubai is Rory McIlroy's to lose as he hunts a sixth title and third in a row, hoping to equal the iconic Seve Ballesteros' tally, with the Northern Irishman holding a near 1,600-point advantage over Thriston Lawrence in second.

Among the 70 men teeing it up this week are some of the biggest names in the world of golf, with Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, and Joaquin Niemann shortlisted as the early favorites alongside World No.3, McIlroy.

Below, a handful of the Golf Monthly team have selected a couple of names each who they believe will contend for the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship trophy come Sunday afternoon.

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship 2024: The Course

Yas Links Abu Dhabi was designed by Kyle Phillips and opened in 2010 as a par-72 course which will stretch out just 75 yards short of 7,500 for this week's championship.

It is not simply all-out distance, though, with four par 3s - one of which is just 154 yards long - plus 10 par 4s of varying length. Having said that, the last of the four par 5s is a 646-yard monster which will test each player's mental and physical fortitude right until the very end.

Eight holes run along the coastline, offering views of the Arabian Gulf, while the final four holes can often play into the breeze. Yas Links features large greens, ensuring competitors' approach play has to be sharp, and the rough will be slightly higher this year, according to tournament director, Miguel Vidaor.

He said: "It’s quite wide for the tee shots but if you go in some of those areas in the rough then it is much more punishing than it has ever been."

ABU DHABI HSBC CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIOUS WINNERS

ABU DHABI HSBC CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING ODDS

The odds to win outright are via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Rory McIlroy (+450)
• Tyrrell Hatton (+650)
• Tommy Fleetwood (+850)
• Joaquin Niemann (+900)
• Shane Lowry (+1600)
• Adam Scott (+2000)
• Rasmus Hojgaard (+2200)
• Min Woo Lee (+2200)
• Robert MacIntyre (+2200)
• Thorbjorn Olesen (+2800)
• Matt Wallace (+3300)
• Niklas Norgaard (+3500)
• Thriston Lawrence (+4000)
• Justin Rose (+4000)
• Jordan Smith (+4500)
• Matteo Manassero (+5000)
• Thomas Detry (+5000)
• Nicolai Hojgaard (+6000)
• Adrian Meronk (+6000)
• Tom McKibbin (+6500)
• Johannes Veerman (+7500)
• Jorge Campillo (+7500)
• Bernd Wiesberger (+8000)
• Sebastian Soderberg (+8000)
• Julien Guerrier (+8000)
• Guido Migliozzi (+8000)
• Alex Fitzpatrick (+9000)
• Jesper Svensson (+9000)
• Laurie Canter (+10000)
• Romain Langasque (+10000)

ABU DHABI HSBC CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING PICKS

Elliott Heath

Picks form: One top-10 and two top-25 selections in five tournaments so far.

FAVORITE: Tommy Fleetwood (+850)

The Englishman has won this tournament twice, albeit at a different venue, but is at home in the UAE - as it is actually his home. Fleetwood lives in Dubai and has a win in the UAE already this year, too, coming at the Dubai Invitational.

He will still harbour hopes of winning the Race to Dubai, and triumphing this week will go a long way to helping that goal. His form is very good, too, with successive top-three finishes and nothing outside of the top-22 since the Olympics, where he was second.

OUTSIDER: Shubhankar Sharma (+12000)

The talented Indian has had a solid if unspectacular season but returns to a happy hunting ground this week, having finished T7th last time out and T2nd in 2022, where he ended one shy of Thomas Pieters’ winning total.

In total, he is 22-under-par for his last eight rounds at Yas Links so represents good value for an each-way pick.

Barry Plummer

Picks form: Six top-10s and three top-25s in nine events since the start of October.

FAVORITE: Rasmus Hojgaard (+2200)

Rasmus Hojgaard arrives in Abu Dhabi following a strong run of recent form, including winning the Irish Open and accumulating two other top-five finishes in his last seven starts. He was fourth last time out at the Andalucia Masters, so will be full of confidence, but it's also worth noting that he consistently plays well in this part of the world.

He started the season with five consecutive top-11 finishes in places like Dubai, Bahrain, UAE and Qatar, plus he finished 20th in this event on his last visit to Yas Links. His recent performances have seen him rank seventh and 12th for SG: Tee To Green, so at a reasonable price I can't ignore a flusher in fine form.

OUTSIDER: Guido Migliozzi (+8000)

I put Migliozzi up as my favourite two weeks ago in Korea, and at this price I am ready to side with him again. He was fifth on that outing, making it two top-10s and a top-20 in his last five DP World Tour appearances.

The Italian opened with an impressive 65 in this event last year, and despite eventually finishing in T20th position, he impressed me enough to give him another chance.

With strong performances on and around the green last time out, I like his chances as an each-way bet - especially when you consider he is more than double the price of his last tournament.

Matt Cradock

Picks form: Four top-10s and four top-25s in nine events since the start of October.

FAVORITE: Tyrrell Hatton (+650)

The Englishman is, arguably, playing the golf of his life right now and, since his win at LIV Golf Nashville, has registered seven top-20s including five top-fives.

Hatton seems to love performing at tournaments where he's done well in the past, as shown by the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship this year, which he won.

Returning to Yas Links, he finished in a share of seventh here in 2023 and, had it not been for a level-par opening round of 72, he would have likely challenged for the top spot, especially with rounds of 67, 71 and 65. He suits the course, he's in red hot form and I feel he will add a fifth Rolex Series title to his name in Abu Dhabi.

OUTSIDER: Paul Waring (+12000)

I've gone with another Englishman here as, following a number of strong showings in 2024, I feel Waring can do it again in Abu Dhabi. In his last event, he finished in a share of seventh at the Andalucia Masters, with three top-25 finishes coming in his past seven starts.

Admittedly, Waring missed the cut here last year but, if you look at his early form in Dubai, Qatar etc, he did have some fine performances, including a tie for sixth at the Commercial Bank Qatar Masters.

One final reason, and hear me out, is due to the fact that Yas Links is known for experiencing strong and often unpredictable wind which, given the fact Waring has a great record on the Links, might just play to his advantage...

Jonny Leighfield

Picks form: Two wins, four top-10s, and three top-25s in nine events since the start of October.

FAVORITE: Thorbjorn Olesen (+2800)

My pick this week is barely a favorite, but I still think he is quietly under-appreciated and could well spring a surprise. Olesen won a little further up the coast at the Ras Al Kaimah Championship at the start of the year, so is comfortable in the Middle East, plus he put together two strong showings at the Irish Open and Alfred Dunhill Links Championship - finishing T12th in both. Since then, he's also gone T2nd/T7th, too.

The key factor behind a possible sneaky victory this week, though, is the fact that he is a superb putter. After returning from The Masters, the Dane has gained strokes on the field with his putter in all but four of his 17 starts. With large greens in play at Yas Links, avoiding three putts will be key.

OUTSIDER: Tom McKibbin (+6500)

During the International Swing at the start of the season, McKibbin really warmed to the task and recorded four top-25 results in Dubai and Qatar, respectively. In Qatar, the Northern Irishman finished fourth. Therefore, playing golf in the Middle East appears to give McKibbin a sense of comfort.

He's great off the tee, too. In all 18 events where strokes gained have been recorded by Data Golf this season, McKibbin has picked up shots on the field in every single one. His putting has been overwhelmingly impressive as well, although one area which would concern me is his approach game.

However, he is perfectly capable of sharpening that up, and with the prize of a PGA Tour card on the horizon with two good results, I hope that will sufficiently sharpen his mind in that regard.

HOW TO WATCH ABU DHABI HSBC CHAMPIONSHIP

USA (ET)

• Thursday, November 7 - Round One: 2:00am - 8:00am (Golf Channel/NBC Sports app)
• Friday, November 8 - Round Two: 2:00am - 8:00am (Golf Channel/NBC Sports app)
• Saturday, November 9 - Round Three: 2:00am - 8:00am (Golf Channel/NBC Sports app)
• Sunday, November 10 - Round Four: 1:30am - 7:30am (Golf Channel/NBC Sports app)

UK (GMT)

• Thursday, November 7 - Round One: 4:00am - 1:00pm (Sky Sports Golf)
• Friday, November 8 - Round Two: 4:00am - 1:00pm (Sky Sports Golf)
• Saturday, November 9 - Round Three: 4:00am - 1:00pm (Sky Sports Golf)
• Sunday, November 10 - Round Four: 4:00am - 12:30pm (Sky Sports Golf)