2023 Valspar Championship Odds and Betting Preview

The 2023 Valspar Championship has arrived! After watching Scottie Scheffler regain No. 1 status in the OWGR with a dominant five-stroke win at The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass this past weekend, we’re in store for another thrilling event on Florida’s Gulf Coast. Players will travel from Jacksonville to Palm Harbor, Florida, outside Tampa Bay, to compete at the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Golf Resort Copperhead Course. Like many of the courses in Florida, it’s filled with water hazards, doglegged fairways, sand bunkers, and small Bermudagrass greens that will challenge even the most confident putters. 

The field won’t feature names like Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Max Homa, or Patrick Cantlay, but we’re still getting plenty of heavy hitters with hopes of dethroning the two-time defending Valspar champion, Sam Burns. That’s right, Burns won at Copperhead in 2022 and 2021, performing the same feat that Paul Casey did in 2018 and 2019. There’s a lot of reasoning to support betting on Burns in an event that he’s dominated in recent years, especially when he’s being valued at 16/1 to win outright, which is better value compared to Justin Thomas (+1100) and Jordan Spieth (+1400), who oddsmakers are showing confidence in ahead of Thursday’s opening round. 

Let’s look at the top-ten betting odds, course layout, and a few players who possess the experience, skill set, and confidence to win outright ahead of Thursday’s opening round at The PLAYERS Championship.

Valspar Championship Betting Odds

Right now, Justin Thomas is getting the highest odds to win outright at Valspar at 11/1, while Spieth is a close second at 12/1. Thomas logged a T3 finish in 2022 at Copperhead, delivering -5-under-par rounds during the first three days before settling with a one-under-par finish on Sunday, eliminating him from the two-hole sudden-death playoff that featured Burns outperforming Davis Riley for his second straight outright win at Valspar. Meanwhile, the last time Spieth competed at Valspar in 2018, he missed the cut, going five-over-par in the opening round. However, Spieth won here back in 2015 and logged a T18 finish the following year in 2016. A couple of my favorite sleepers rounding out the top ten outright odds are Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood, two Englishman with great putters and the ability to keep their irons dialed in with precision. Canadian Adam Hadwin is a former winner, while Matt Fitzpatrick logged a T5 finish in 2022. 

Let’s explore the course layout more, along with previous winners, relevant betting stats, and a few of my favorite golfers to bet on as outright winners ahead of the 2023 Valspar Championship. 

Valspar Championship Betting Preview

Previous Winners

• 2022 - Sam Burns (-17)
• 2021 - Sam Burns (-17)
• 2020 - Cancelled
• 2019 - Paul Casey (-8)
• 2018 - Paul Casey (-10) 
• 2017 - Adam Hadwin (-14)

Relevant Betting Stats

• Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Driving Accuracy percentage
• Sand save percentage

Course Layout

Innisbrook Golf Resort Copperhead Course is a par 71 that stretches to roughly 7,300 yards. The surfaces are Bermudagrass, including the greens, which tend to run slower than their Bengtrass counterparts. There are four par 5s and five par 3s at Copperhead, with the final three-hole sequence consisting of two par 4s and a difficult par 3, more commonly referred to as the ‘Snake Pit’ due to the precision and numerous hazards that will present themselves to players off of the tee box.

Designed by Larry Packard back in the 1970s, Copperhead demands strong drives and accurate tee shots, as there is abundant rough and tree-lined fairways that tend to dogleg, meaning the greens are obscured during most approach shots on par 4 and par 5 holes. Being able to scramble is a vital component to winning here, along with sand save percentage, as there are dozens of sand bunkers that are strategically placed along the fairways and around the greens to make it even more difficult to stay at par or lower.

Top Players to Bet for Outright Winner at the Valspar Championship

Jordan Spieth (+1200) (Bet $100 to collect $1,300) Get the best Jordan Spieth odds at FanDuel

I really like what I’ve seen from Jordan Spieth in 2023. While he is still searching for his first outright win on the PGA Tour this season, the 29-year-old native of Texas has logged a T4, and T6 finish in two of his previous four events played since mid-February. Spieth won at Copperhead, albeit eight years ago, but he’s playing great around the green, ranking third in scrambling from 20-30 yards, fourth in approaches from 125-150 yards, and 15th in strokes gained around the green. Spieth punishes the golf ball with his driver, too, averaging over 300 yards per swing, so the only question will be whether or not he can stay under par in all four rounds to position himself for a push to the top of the leaderboard on Sunday. He’s my favorite player with the lowest odds to bet on, as he’s done it here to kickstart his career and is playing well enough to transfer his momentum into Valspar for his first outright of the season in a field that is lightened a bit from the past few events that we’ve watched. 

Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) (Bet $100 to collect $2,600) Go to DraftKings for the best odds for this pick

Tommy Fleetwood is one of my favorite players to bet outright at Valspar this weekend. The 32-year-old Englishman drew a T16 finish at Copperhead in 2022, faltering in the final round by going even par, but he’s equipped with one of the best putters in the game right now. Fleetwood ranks second in overall putting average, one-putt percentage, and putts per round. Anyone who has this much talent with the flat stick will have an edge over the majority of the field, but Fleetwood is also ranked 17th in strokes gained tee-to-green, and 22nd in strokes gained approaching the green. His irons are accurate, so paired with his putter, I love Fleetwood to make a significant run at Copperhead as he seeks the first outright win of his 13-year career on the PGA Tour. 

Adam Hadwin (+2800) (Bet $100 to collect $2,900) Head to DraftKings for the best Adam Hadwin odds

We’re landing 28/1 odds for one of Valspar’s previous outright winners with 35-year-old Canadian Adam Hadwin. He missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational a couple of weeks ago. Still, he bounced back with a solid T13 finish at TPC Sawgrass this past weekend, staying below par in every round despite difficult conditions and a loaded field. Hadwin won at Copperhead in 2017, is ranked fifth in par 3 scoring average, 12th at putting inside of ten feet, and 14th in approaches between 175 and 200 yards. Hadwin also is equipped with an accurate driver, ranking 24th on the PGA Tour, so he’ll have a sizable advantage by evading the rough and bunkers, giving plenty of room to set up quality approach shots onto the greens. Players tend to perform well at courses they’ve had previous success at. Still, unlike Sam Burns, who is struggling to crack a T25 finish lately, Hadwin has two finishes inside of the top 15 in two of his four previous events played since mid-February. At 28/1, we’re getting a solid payout if the veteran Canadian can rise to the occasion for his second outright at Valspar in a field that isn’t nearly as daunting compared to the past couple of events.