2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Betting Picks and Predictions

The PGA Tour heads west to Detroit, Michigan, for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, a tournament that is still in its relative infancy. The event replaced the Quicken Loans National on the schedule and is the first PGA Tour event to be held completely in the Detroit city limits. Detroit Golf Club, an iconic Donald Ross design, is our host course, and while it may struggle to stand up to the modern game, it remains a wonderful course to watch golf on, and the event always produces great fan turnout and energy. 

While this is certainly a sleepy part of the jam-packed PGA Tour schedule, the Rocket Mortgage Classic will have its best field in tournament history, with 14 of the top 40 players in the Official World Golf Rankings. Tony Finau will return to defend his title, and he will be joined by the likes of Max Homa, Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im, Rickie Fowler, Collin Morikawa, Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, and recent Travelers Championship winner Keegan Bradley. I have always felt that this event deserves a stronger field, and it’s certainly exciting to see some of the World’s best show up in Detroit this week.

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Rocket Mortgage Classic: Course Preview

Detroit Golf Club

Designed in 1916 by famed architect Donald Ross, Detroit Golf Club fits the prototype of a classical, tree-lined, Bent-grass course that pros tend to tear apart. While measuring a stout 7,370 yards on the scorecard, the golf course plays much shorter than that, as the average driving distance is nearly 10 yards longer than Tour average. Hot, humid, and muggy conditions aid in the distance, and this is not a golf course that in any way deters plays from bombing drivers on nearly every hole. Everything is all out in front of you at Detroit Golf Club, and there are no real hazards that players need to be concerned with. Last year, it ranked 35th out of 38 courses in a fraction of missed fairways that resulted in a penalty stroke and 37th out of 38 courses in penalty strokes per round. 

As a result, it should not be a surprise to see power hitters such as Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Davis, and Tony Finau win in the last three editions. While length off the tee is certainly advantageous at Detroit Golf Club, it’s far from a necessity. Wedge play and putting is still the name of the game. While elite drivers of the ball are not able to do much to separate themselves on this golf course, players who excel from inside 125 yards will have a huge advantage. Even more importantly, 40.1% of strokes gained at Detroit Golf Club have come with the flat stick, which certainly forces us to put the Ross design in the category of a “putting contest.” 

Like all Ross courses, these greens do have some character, and putting is the hardest strokes gained metric for players to gain strokes in, but the lack of firmness prevents these greens from truly having some bite. Putting inside 15 feet will remain absolutely essential this week, as scoring opportunities will be plentiful. I will primarily be looking for players who excel inside 125 yards, are elite at generating birdie looks, possess the ability to heat up with the putter and have a tendency to raise their baseline in easy scoring conditions.

Rocket Mortgage Classic Key Stats

• Long-term Proximity 100-150 yards
• Putting 5-15 feet
• Opportunities Gained

Rocket Mortgage Classic: Outright Winner

Tony Finau (+1200) (Bet $100 to collect $1,300) BetMGM has the best odds for Tony Finau

Despite being the defending champion, Tony Finau is flying relatively under the radar this week due to some understandable concerns about his recent form. While the six-time PGA Tour winner has failed to finish in the top 20 in his five starts since winning the Mexico Open, the ball-striking has never wavered. Finau is coming off a ho-hum 45th at the Travelers Championship, where he gained strokes in both ball-striking categories, including over three strokes off the tee. There’s absolutely nothing to prove in terms of course fit, and I would argue that Finau is a better player now than he was at this time last year. 

I would make that claim mainly due to the elevation of his approach play this season, as Finau remains the number two iron player in this field, behind only Collin Morikawa. Even more impressive is the fact that he ranks second in opportunities gained, third in birdies or better gained, first in par five scoring, and first in easy scoring conditions. My numbers suggest that despite a recent slump, Finau is still the class of this field, and this is the perfect time to buy on an elite talent that is playing far better than his results would suggest.

Mark Hubbard (+10000) (Bet $100 to collect $10,100) Head to DraftKings for the best Mark Hubbard odds

While I know Mark Hubbard disappointed many as a trendy pick last week at the Travelers Championship, I would not be so quick to hop off. Hubbard missed the cut on the number at TPC River Highlands while still gaining three strokes on approach. The 34-year-old’s irons have been absolutely on fire of late, as he has now gained over three strokes on approach in four straight starts. I love the way that Hubbard is hitting the ball right now, and I do not particularly feel that his lack of driving ability is really going to hurt him much at this course. 

With so many approach shots inside 125 yards, Detroit Golf Club should fit Hubbard’s ideal proximity ranges even better than the recent courses he has been tearing up. He also ranks 10th in this field in easy scoring conditions, and with strong performances at TPC River Highlands and TPC Deere Run, I have very little concern about his ability to keep up in a Bent-grass birdie-fest. While he has missed his last two cuts here, Hubbard finished 12th at the Ross design on debut and has gained ball-striking strokes in all three appearances. Coming off a very misleading missed cut, this is a great time to hop on one of the hottest approach players in the field.

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